2025 Federal Pay Raise vs. Inflation - image: lady on the phone
  • Federal employees can anticipate a 2.0% for the 2025 Federal Pay Raise – will this keep pace with inflation?

As we covered in a previous article, the White House suggested 2% for next year’s federal salary increase in the Biden Administration’s proposed budget for the upcoming fiscal year beginning October 1st. The pay raise would go into effect on January 1st unless there is more shutdown drama in which case it wouldn’t go into effect until later but could be backdated to the first day of the year like in 2019. Typically, the president signs an executive order around mid to late December that finalizes the figure.

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The 2% suggestion appears to be the most likely outcome at this point. Although congress could pass a higher pay increase for the federal workforce, the current group of lawmakers on Capitol Hill have not managed to get much passed legislatively. Either through a standalone law such as the FAIR Act, which proposed a 7.4% raise for feds in 2025, or included in the annual budgetary bills, the raise could be less or more than the anticipated 2.0% if Congress were to act.

2025 Federal Pay Raise vs. Inflation

According the CPI (consumer price index) data from the DOL, current economic conditions indicate an annual inflation rate of 3.5% (as of the end of March). However, inflation is expected to taper off by the end of the year to give an inflation rate of 2.2%. Because of locality pay, some feds who live in areas with a high cost-of-living will likely receive a raise higher than the flat 2.0% but it is unlikely to keep pace with the reality of rising prices.

One place federal employees can outpace inflation, however, is their TSP, if they’ve got a disciplined investment strategy and are properly allocated amongst the five index funds. You can get the information you need to start developing such a strategy at our zero-cost TSP Webinars held every month!

Benefits Ben, STWS

Benjamin Derge, ChFEBC℠

Ben, a Chartered Federal Employee Benefits Consultant℠-designated financial planner with an English degree, combines his love of writing with his knowledge of federal employee benefits in service of our clients as a content strategist here at STWS. He posts new content every week on the Benefits Ben blog. Ben specializes in helping federal employees, retirees, and their families optimize their benefits. His expertise encompasses digital marketing, benefits assistance, annuity management, investment management, and ensuring clients receive superior service and reliable advice.

2025 Federal Pay Raise Article

**Written by Benjamin Derge, Financial Planner, ChFEBC℠ The information has been obtained from sources considered reliable but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Benjamin Derge and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. Links are being provided for information purposes only. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize, or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors.

2025 Federal Pay Raise vs. Inflation - image: lady on the phone

2025 Federal Pay Raise - Inflation Projections